Catalyst Tracker
Probability-weighted event calendar tracking key milestones, regulatory deadlines, and market events that could materially impact the INFQ investment case.
Upcoming
Rosenblatt Initiation (~$15–22 PT)
Quiet period expired March 10. Garrigan (Rosenblatt's quantum specialist) has had 2 management meetings. Methodology: 36.6× EV/Sales on 2030 revenue estimates. Potential +10–20% move on headline.
ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit (Booth #745)
Infleqtion exhibiting at the ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit. Quantum sensing and timing applications for energy infrastructure. Potential for government partnership announcements.
Resale Registration Statement
30 business days from Feb 13 close. Reveals the exact lock-up holder list with share counts. Short sellers get the data they need to model supply. Potential negative catalyst — watch for elevated options activity in the days prior.
First 10-Q (Q1 2026)
First real financial data as a public company. Beat: >$12M revenue. In-line: $8–10M. Miss: <$6–7M. Watch funded backlog definition, gross margin trend, and MD&A language on Safran and MDA SHIELD conversion.
Lock-Up Expiry — 152M Shares
~70% of shares outstanding enter the market. Historical SPAC data: median -25% to -80% decline in 6-month window. Churchill/Klein (10.7M shares at $0.003/share cost basis) will sell at first legal opportunity.
Russell 2000 Inclusion
Commonly misreported as June 2026 — INFQ is ineligible at the June reconstitution due to the FTSE Russell de-SPAC lock-up exclusion (rank date April 30; lock-up expires August 12). Estimated passive demand: ~$50–60M (~10% of float).
Ongoing Watchlist
Early Lock-Up Trigger Watch
VWAP ≥ $12.00 for 15 consecutive trading days releases lock-up early. Stock touched exactly $12.00 AH on March 2. Monitor VWAP daily — this is the single most time-sensitive variable in the near-term setup.
Short Interest Reporting
FINRA reports short interest as of the 15th and last business day of each month. First meaningful short data on INFQ expected mid-March 2026. Elevated short interest could signal institutional hedging of lock-up overhang.
Additional Analyst Coverage Tracker
Post-quiet-period, additional banks with SPAC underwriting relationships may initiate. Cantor Fitzgerald and others had roles in the deal. Each new initiation is a potential near-term catalyst.
Completed — With Verdict
NYSE Listing — INFQ
Business combination closed. Infleqtion began trading on NYSE as INFQ. 216,471,927 shares outstanding confirmed in 8-K filing. Board composition and lock-up terms established.
Analyst Day Presentation
Infleqtion hosted its first Analyst Day as a public company. 81-slide deck covering product roadmap, revenue guidance framework, Tiqker variants, Safran partnership update, and Superstaq commercial pipeline.